# EMU Robustness: Hub Exclusion and Post-2010 Sample

Financial center / tax hub countries excluded: BEL, CYP, IRL, LUX, MLT, NLD

## Panel A: Z Levels → CA/GDP

| Variable | Baseline EMU | Excl Hubs | Post-2010 | Excl Hubs + Post-2010 |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Z_1 | -189.7500*** | -168.6373*** | -107.8335*** | -76.7693* |
| | (35.6908) | (44.6441) | (35.2135) | (40.3326) |
| Z_2 | 24.2056*** | 21.7075*** | 14.8205*** | 11.9543** |
| | (4.6263) | (5.7160) | (4.5839) | (5.1410) |
| Z_3 | -0.8706*** | -0.7796*** | -0.5624*** | -0.4696** |
| | (0.1713) | (0.2093) | (0.1697) | (0.1847) |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | -0.0679 | -0.0196 | 0.0742 | 0.0545 |
| | (0.0654) | (0.0600) | (0.0835) | (0.0773) |
| nfa_gdp_lag | 1.6071** | 0.6368 | 3.8210*** | 4.0461*** |
| | (0.6681) | (0.9920) | (0.7028) | (0.8275) |
| rgdp_growth | 0.1202*** | -0.0268 | 0.1321** | -0.0028 |
| | (0.0379) | (0.0346) | (0.0510) | (0.0482) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| N | 447 | 289 | 297 | 196 |
| R² | 0.2416 | 0.2636 | 0.3323 | 0.4357 |
| Countries | 19 | 13 | 19 | 13 |

## Panel B: Z Deviations → CA Deviation

| Variable | Baseline EMU (dev) | Excl Hubs (dev) | Post-2010 (dev) | Excl Hubs + Post-2010 (dev) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Z_1_dev | -185.4627*** | -117.3466*** | -103.6422*** | -37.9155 |
| | (32.3060) | (43.4959) | (35.3517) | (35.2140) |
| Z_2_dev | 24.8720*** | 16.0661*** | 14.6030*** | 7.3563* |
| | (4.2107) | (5.4158) | (4.6312) | (4.4139) |
| Z_3_dev | -0.9270*** | -0.5934*** | -0.5630*** | -0.3143** |
| | (0.1571) | (0.1947) | (0.1727) | (0.1571) |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | 0.0079 | 0.0535 | 0.0322 | 0.0106 |
| | (0.0612) | (0.0466) | (0.0786) | (0.0580) |
| nfa_gdp_lag | 1.6162*** | 0.0379 | 3.6396*** | 4.3061*** |
| | (0.6101) | (0.8295) | (0.7048) | (0.7027) |
| rgdp_growth | 0.0882** | 0.0299 | 0.1323*** | 0.0908** |
| | (0.0356) | (0.0271) | (0.0472) | (0.0363) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| N | 447 | 289 | 297 | 196 |
| R² | 0.3304 | 0.2884 | 0.3465 | 0.5481 |
| Countries | 19 | 13 | 19 | 13 |

## Panel C: Standardized Effects

| Metric | Baseline EMU (dev) | Excl Hubs (dev) | Post-2010 (dev) | Excl Hubs + Post-2010 (dev) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Z1_dev coefficient | -185.46 | -117.35 | -103.64 | -37.92 |
| Z1_dev SE | 32.31 | 43.50 | 35.35 | 35.21 |
| Z1_dev SD | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| Z1_dev IQR | 0.30 | 0.25 | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| 1-SD effect (pp) | -66.75 | -26.25 | -38.27 | -8.99 |
| IQR effect (pp) | -56.30 | -29.88 | -31.54 | -10.28 |

*Panel GLS with country and year fixed effects. EMU members post-accession.*
*Hub countries excluded: BEL, CYP, IRL, LUX, MLT, NLD (financial centers / tax hubs with volatile CA/GDP).*
*\*p<0.1, \*\*p<0.05, \*\*\*p<0.01*